The IEA, after warning on March 16 that 3 million barrels a day could be locked up from April, cut that figure for a second time as it noted that only 1 million barrels a day had gone offline.
Over time, steadily increasing volumes of OPEC+ in the Middle East and the US, along with a slowdown in demand growth, are expected to absorb an acute supply shortage amid a worsening Russian supply disruption, the IEA said. in its monthly oil report.
“Rising pump prices and slowing economic growth are expected to significantly slow the recovery in demand through the rest of the year and into 2023,” the IEA said, adding that measures to contain Covid-19 in China are caused a long economic slowdown.
As a result of slower product exports and falling domestic demand, about a million barrels of Russian oil per day were closed last month — about half a million less than the agency previously forecast.
The IEA sees that figure rise to 1.6 million barrels a day in May, to 2 million in June and nearly 3 million from July if sanctions deter further purchases or expansions.
The United States and other IEA members pledged to release 240 million barrels of oil this year in their second tapping of emergency supplies, after the IEA postponed a US-led release in November because there was no major supply disruption at the time.
Russian exports recovered 620,000 barrels per day in April from the previous month to 8.1 million, the IEA said, back to the January-February average as supply was diverted from the United States and Europe, mainly to India.
While it works to ban Russian oil, the European Union remained the main market for Russian oil exports last month, the IEA said, dropping just 535,000 barrels per day from the start of the year.
The bloc now accounts for 43% of Russia’s oil exports, up from about 50% then.